MLS Horse Race: Down the Stretch They Come!

There are only twenty days remaining in the 2009 MLS Regular Season, and after this weekend's results, there are only five playoff spots up for grabs. MLS Cup and Supporters' Shield holder Columbus have locked up a return trip to post-season, as has '06 & 07 Cup champ Houston Dynamo and the resurgent Los Angeles Galaxy, returning to the playoffs for the first time in four years.

Eleven tightly-packed clubs are in the running for the five available slots, and the higher up the table, the tighter it gets. Clubs in slots 4-9 (Seattle, Chicago, Chivas, Colorado, New England, And DC United) are separated by a mere six points. Clubs currently on the outside looking in, however (Toronto, Salt Lake, Dallas, and KC), all have three matches remaining to reach the top eight. Only one club, New York, has been eliminated.

A close look at the schedule exposes the sides with the easiest road to the playoffs...

Club (current points, position), Avg pts/remaining opponent, matches remaining, most possible points:
1. TFC (35, 11th), 30.3 pts/remaining opponent, 3 games remaining, 47 points possible
2. RSL (35, 10th), 31,0, 3 gr, 47 pts
3. SEA (41, 4th), 32.5, 3 gr, 50 pts
4. COL (40, 7th), 34.0, 2 gr, 46 pts
5. x-LA (44, 3rd), 35.5, 2 gr, 50 pts
t6. FCD (33, 13th), 36.3, 3 gr, 42 pts
t6. CHV (41, 6th), 36.3, 4 gr, 53 pts
8. x-CMB (46, 1st), 37.3, 3 gr, 55 pts
9. SJ (28, 14th), 38.3, 4 gr, 40 pts
10. DCU (26, 9th), 39.0, 2 gr, 42 pts
11. KC (32, 13th), 39.3, 3 gr, 41 pts
12. CHI (41, 5th), 39.5, 2 gr, 47 pts
13. x-HOU (44, 2nd), 42.5, 2 gr, 50 pts
14. NE (38, 8th), 44.3, 3 gr, 47 pts

Of course, in MLS, a strong stretch run can turn a poor regular season into a playoff success. Here's a look how many points each club has picked in since August 1st:

16 points: x-Columbus (5-2-1), x-Los Angeles (5-3-1), Dallas (5-3-1)
15 points: New England (4-4-3)
14 points: San Jose (4-2-2), Chivas USA (4-3-2)
13 points: Colorado (3-3-4)
12 points: x-Houston (3-3-3), Salt Lake (3-3-3), Seattle (3-4-3), Chicago (3-4-3)
11 points: Kansas City (3-5-2)
9 points: Toronto (2-4-3)
8 points: New York (2-3-2) DC United (2-5-2)

Based on the above analysis, Who will grab five those remaining spots? My prediction: Seattle, Chivas, Salt Lake, New England, and Colorado.

Key Remaining Matches:
Sat 10/17: NE-CHI, RSL-TFC, COL-FCD
Sat 10/24: KC-DC, CMB-NE, RSL-COL